Today we saw the CNB hike the Repo Rate higher than all the economists predicted. They hiked the rates by 0.75 basis points, the highest rate hike since 1997. Giving us a great sell opportunity on USDCZK with a nice staggered move down 140 pips over the next 90 seconds. An excellent trade!
In the Czech Republic, the benchmark interest rate is set by the Czech National Bank (CNB). The official interest rate is the two-week repo rate, a rate at which commercial banks are allowed to place excess funds at the end of the day with the Central Bank.Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CZK while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.
Yesterday we got the type of trade I live for, a surprise cut to the Turkish interest rate.
With only one out of twenty-three economists predicting a change to the rate, the forecast was to remain at 19%. Last time we saw a shock move of more than 0.5% we saw 900 pips immediately after. Today, I’m delighted to say we saw the same again a shock cut to 18 % and over a 1000 pips banked.
Higher interest rates are great for the value of the currency. Therefore, higher interest rates will create a BUY on ZAR Pairs and vice versa. We see deviations often. We have seen four deviations since November 2018, which is excellent from a bi-monthly report.
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey’s (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on setting the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.