What Does The Data Mean To The Market?
The Hungarian National Bank Monetary Policy Committee’s decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the HUF – (Hungarian Forint), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the HUF.
Historic Deviations And Outcome
July 27 2021 – A small +0.1 deviation gave a nice 2-minute move on USDHUF and EURHUF, providing 150 pips total move. If you have a good broker with tight spreads, there were pips available from this event.
July 21 2020 – June 23rd 2020, We got a negative -0.15bps (basis points) cut to the interest rate which gave a nice slow move on USDHUF, with many opportunities to enter the market!
Today we have the following forecast ranges.
High Forecast = 1.95
Low Forecast = 1.65
Official Estimate = 1.8
Average = 1.81
Previous intetest rate = 1.65
Looking to take a trade 0.1% deviation from the official forecast so 1.7 to sell and 1.9 to buy.
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Another shock to the markets today was when the highly anticipated cut to the Turkish interest didn’t happen; the markets quickly revalued the Turkish Lira’s value.
We saw a whopping 2000 pips in a few seconds: what a lovely move, a great trade.
See the video here:
Hi, I’m James, born in 1979 and grew up with a strong interest in IT and business. My first career was in IT support, which lasted 12 years before selling my company in 2009. I decided to move abroad and do something new! Forex caught my eye. I did the typical rookie thing of opening a real account, depositing far too much of my savings, and lost a small fortune. Although this experience was very negative at the time, it taught me some tough lessons that I still benefit from today. News events caught my eye; the patterns in the charts they created were repetitive and often predictable. I knew that if I could understand them more, I could make accurate predictions about how they would move. So I spent much time developing my trading method around thousands of hours of research and data. Now many years of trading around news events have earned me a good income, one that I’m sure others can benefit from.
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